Just Finance

May 07, 2021  

Gretchen Whitmer (D). Suffolk County, a suburb of New York City, became the first in the state to require weekly testing for kids participating in high-risk sports, such as high school wrestling and basketball. Numerous counties in California are doing the same. Minnesota recommends that all school-age kids returning to school and reference their families get tested every two weeks, and that student athletes and those involved with other in-person activities get tested weekly. For most of the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has spread in big bursts that have been described by epidemiologists as viral bombs. The Biogen conference in Boston, a church in South Korea, a French ski resort. In each of these events, infectious-disease investigators were able to trace the cases back to one highly infectious “patient zero.” This uneven transmission, with an estimated 20 percent of people infecting many others, while 80 percent spread the virus to no one or just a few, has been a hallmark of the virus since the very early days. The recent outbreak in Carver County looks very different. Kris Ehresmann, the Minnesota Department of Health’s director of the division of infectious diseases, describes the 189 cases — 49 of which were confirmed to be B.1.1.7 through genomic sequencing and the rest of which are suspected to be the variant — as having more of a “lattice” pattern in which each node is connected to several others. She also said the variant appears to have a high attack rate in households between children and parents and siblings. In a report, her team commented that the youth clusters have seeded community spread “to a degree not seen in previous spikes.” “It isn’t just the sheer number of cases, but the network of interconnectivity that is striking,” she said. “It is showing us how readily transmissible this virus variant can be.” She said it’s as if the virus has mapped the area’s whole social ecosystem. Felix Wong, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology postdoctoral fellow who has been modeling coronavirus transmission throughout the pandemic, found in an analysis for The Washington Post that a measure of the “clustering” aspect of the Carver County spread is different from past outbreaks. Last year, studies show the pandemic was largely driven by a few superspreaders infecting many. But in Carver County, the data suggests the transmission pattern is more similar to the flu, in which a greater number of people spread the virus to a few others. Wong cautioned that this is just one case study and more data is needed to make stronger conclusions. He said the higher transmission rate of B.1.1.7 should lead to larger and more frequent superspreading events. But changes such as masking practices, vaccinations and natural immunity from previous infections may prevent that.


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